SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett both expressed skepticism at oral arguments, making a 5-4 strike-down near certain
Odds surged from 75% to 95% on April 1 after oral arguments revealed only conservative justices Trump needed are skeptical
1898 Wong Kim Ark precedent and the 14th Amendment text create overwhelming constitutional barrier against the EO
Bears Say
Decision is not yet issued: market at 92% still implies 8% probability of surprise ruling upholding the EO
Government's argument about "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" has never been definitively tested in modern court
Near-zero 24h volume ($13) means limited new information is being priced in between oral arguments and final ruling
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether SCOTUS will strike down Trump's Executive Order 14160 restricting birthright citizenship. At 92% YES, markets reflect overwhelming legal consensus after April 1 oral arguments…