Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Markets consistently price Rodríguez at 64-66%, far above all other candidates combined
Maduro removal markets repeatedly resolved NO, suggesting regime stability that benefits his VP
As Maduro's closest political ally, Rodríguez is the clear succession choice if regime changes internally
Bears Say
Maduro himself still holds power and has no clear incentive to transfer authority to Rodríguez
Opposition leader Machado and González together command ~16% of leadership probability, a real disruption risk
US pressure and sanctions could destabilize the regime before any planned succession occurs