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Politics

Which party will win the House in 2026?

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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls Say

Historical midterm patterns favor the party opposing a sitting president

Democrats are priced at 85%, reflecting strong structural tailwinds

Market liquidity of $0.6M suggests informed traders back this outcome

Bears Say

Price slipped 3% over the past week, signaling eroding confidence

No supporting news flow to reinforce the current high probability

Thin 24h volume ($0.1M) leaves the 85% price vulnerable to revision