Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Odds have hit an all-time high and market has surged from 19% to 20.5%, showing growing trader conviction in disclosure
Trump alien files release odds spiked simultaneously, reflecting credible executive-branch disclosure pathway
NASA biosignature findings and active Kalshi markets signal multi-platform institutional interest in this outcome
Bears Say
At 20.5% for year-end disclosure, the market prices a 79.5% chance the US does not confirm alien existence by Dec 31
A HackerNews thread argues any 'disclosure' is more likely a psyop or politically motivated announcement than genuine evidence
Former top UFO investigator Sean Kirkpatrick has been skeptical of hard evidence claims, undercutting expert consensus
Recent News
Market Description
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump leaves the presidency by June 30, 2026 through any means including resignation, removal, or death. Currently at 6% YES, the market reflects near-certainty that…